China’s steel production in 2025 is expected to continue showing trends of structural adjustment and production control. According to the latest data, China’s crude steel production has decreased year-on-year in the first few months of 2025. The pressure for overall steel production growth remains, but structural changes are evident.

In 2024, China’s crude steel production was approximately 1.005 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. Entering the beginning of 2025, the downward trend in crude steel production continued, with a further year-on-year decrease of 1.5% in the first two months. In some regions, such as Xinjiang, steel mills have implemented policies to reduce daily output by 10%, with the annual output expected to fall to 11.61 million tons, a new low in recent years. Nationwide, policies to regulate crude steel production continue to be implemented, promoting industry-wide reduction and green transformation.

During January-April 2025, crude steel production was approximately 345 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%; steel production was approximately 480 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%. This indicates that although crude steel production has slightly increased, steel production has grown more significantly, reflecting positive changes in steel processing and downstream demand.

In recent years, the demand structure of China’s steel industry has undergone significant changes. The demand for traditional construction steel (such as rebar) has continued to decline, with a cumulative decrease of approximately 75 million tons from 2020 to 2024, and a 15% decrease in 2024. Meanwhile, the production of industrial steel (medium-thick wide steel strip) increased from 170 million tons to 214 million tons, surpassing construction steel for the first time and becoming the main demand category. The overall apparent consumption of steel decreased from 1.048 billion tons to 892 million tons, a decrease of nearly 15%, indicating a long-term supply-demand contradiction.

In 2025, China’s steel industry will continue to promote green manufacturing and high-end product development, actively responding to dual carbon emission control policies. It is expected that steel demand will decrease by approximately 10 million tons per year to around 800 million tons in the next five years, with high-end varieties such as electrical steel strip maintaining resilience. Industry technological iterations will focus on green processes such as hydrogen-rich ironmaking and electric arc furnace short-process.

In summary, China’s steel production in 2025 shows a slight overall fluctuation, with crude steel production decreasing but steel production maintaining growth. The industrial structure is transforming towards industrial steel and green, high-end development, with policy regulation and market demand jointly influencing the trend of steel production.