https://youtu.be/b1qlJ1TQrlo
China Steel Market Update
📈 I. Price Trends: Weak Volatility with Brief Rebounds

1. Futures Performance

   • As of June 6, 2025, rebar main contract (RB2510) settled at 2,975 RMB/ton, up 0.57% weekly but still down ~2.5% from May’s peak.

   • Trading range: 2,930-3,030 RMB/ton, facing technical resistance at the 3,000 RMB psychological barrier.

2. Spot Market

   • National average rebar spot price: ~3,232 RMB/ton (Hangzhou Zhongtian spot: 3,130 RMB/ton), maintaining a 155-258 RMB/ton premium over futures, reflecting cautious market sentiment.

   • Regional variations:

     • East China (Hangzhou/Shanghai): Stabilized at 3,050-3,070 RMB/ton (infrastructure project support).

     • North China: Environmental production cuts drove 20-30 RMB/ton price hikes.

     • South China: Torrential rains suppressed demand, with hidden discounts of 10-20 RMB/ton.

⚖️ II. Supply-Demand Dynamics: Seasonal Slump vs. Inadequate Output Cuts

1. Supply Side

   • Late-May daily crude steel output at key mills: 230k tons (↓4.9% MoM).

   • Early-June daily molten iron output: 233.26k tons – marginal decline but still elevated.

   • Tangshan’s environmental restrictions (June 5-15; 30% sintering cuts) temporarily curb supply, yet blast furnace operating rates hold at 78.5%.

2. Demand Side

   • Property market drag: New construction starts ↓18% YoY; funding availability at 49.85% (↓0.95% WoW).

   • Seasonal weakness intensifies: Southern floods + nationwide exam-related halts slashed weekly rebar consumption 7.9% WoW to 229k tons (multi-year low).

   • Infrastructure “fails to provide substantial lift”: Special bond issuance accelerated (third tranche: 1.5T RMB), yet project delays limit steel procurement.

3. Slowing Inventory Drawdown

   • Total stockpiles: 570.48k tons (↓10.57k tons WoW), decelerating by 50% from prior week.

   • Mill inventory decline narrowed to 0.86%, signaling weak restocking demand.